Tsis ntev los no, US dollar Performance index tau nce ntxiv, tab sis kev lag luam uas tsis yog-ferrous tsis poob qis, thiab qhov sib txawv ntawm ntau yam sib txawv yog pom tseeb dua.Raws li kev kaw ntawm kev lag luam nyob rau yav tav su ntawm Lub Yim Hli 24, qhov sib txawv ntawm Shanghai Aluminium thiab Shanghai Nickel hauv cov khoom tsis-ferrous tau sib txawv.Ntawm lawv, Shanghai aluminium yav tom ntej txuas ntxiv nce, kaw 2.66%, teeb tsa ib-thiab-ib-hli siab;Shanghai nickel yav tom ntej tsis muaj zog tag nrho, kaw 2.03% nyob rau hnub.
Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog sau cia tias qhov kev taw qhia macro tsis ntev los no rau cov hlau tsis muaj hlau yog qhov txwv.Txawm hais tias tsis ntev los no Fed cov tub ceev xwm muaj tus cwj pwm tsis zoo thiab cov txiaj ntsig ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas tau ntxiv dag zog ntxiv, nws tsis tau ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam tsis zoo ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau, thiab cov kev sib txuas ntawm ntau yam tau rov qab los rau hauv cov hauv paus.Wu Haode, tus thawj coj ntawm Changjiang Futures Guangzhou Branch, ntseeg tias muaj ob lub laj thawj tseem ceeb:
Ua ntej, qhov kev poob qis dhau los ntawm cov nqi hlau tsis muaj hlau tau ua tiav qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb kev lag luam poob qis hauv Fed tus nqi nce mus txog.Txij li thaum Lub Xya Hli, Fed's hawkish paj laum tus cwj pwm nce siab tau yooj yim, thiab Asmeskas kev nce nqi tau hloov me ntsis, thiab kev lag luam cov kev cia siab rau kev yuam cov paj laum tau qis qis.Txawm hais tias US dollar Performance index tseem muaj zog, qhov kev cia siab ntawm cov paj laum yuav tsis txhawb nqa US dollar Performance index kom nce siab ntxiv.Yog li ntawd, qhov cuam tshuam ntawm lub sij hawm luv luv ntawm kev ntxiv dag zog rau US duas ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau yog qhov tsis muaj zog, uas yog, cov hlau tsis muaj hlau tau raug "desensitized" rau US duas hauv theem.
Thib ob, qhov nce tsav tsheb ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsis yog hlau txij thaum Lub Yim Hli feem ntau yog los ntawm kev lag luam hauv tsev.Ntawm qhov tod tes, nrog kev txhawb nqa ntawm cov cai hauv tebchaws, kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam tau txhim kho;Ntawm qhov tod tes, qhov kub thiab txias hauv ntau qhov chaw txuas ntxiv ua rau muaj kev tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, ua rau kev txiav tawm ntawm qhov kawg smelting, thiab thawb cov nqi hlau kom rov zoo.Yog li ntawd, nws tuaj yeem pom tias sab hauv disk muaj zog dua li cov txheej txheem sab nraud, thiab qhov sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv sab hauv thiab sab nraud ntawm cov nqi txhuas yog qhov tshwj xeeb.
Raws li Hou Yahui, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas ntawm Shenyin Wanguo Futures Nonferrous Metals, Lub Yim Hli tseem nyob rau lub sijhawm ib ntus ntawm Fed lub macro paj laum mus ncig, thiab qhov cuam tshuam ntawm macro yam tseem ceeb kuj tsis muaj zog.Tus nqi tsis ntev los no ntawm cov hlau tsis yog hlau feem ntau cuam tshuam cov ntsiab lus ntawm ntau yam lawv tus kheej.Piv txwv li, tooj liab thiab zinc nrog lub hauv paus muaj zog yog nyob rau hauv ib qho kev sib hloov tsis tu ncua.Raws li cov khoom lag luam tau txhawb nqa los ntawm cov xov xwm ntawm kev txiav ntau lawm ib txhij hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws, txhuas tau tawg tsis ntev los no dua.Rau ntau yam uas tsis muaj zog, xws li npib tsib xee, tom qab rebounding nyob rau theem dhau los, lub siab saum toj no yuav pom tseeb dua.
Tam sim no, kev lag luam hlau tsis-ferrous tau nkag mus rau lub sijhawm sib sau ua ke, thiab cov kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov hauv paus ntawm ntau yam tau rov zoo.Piv txwv li, zinc thiab aluminium profile tuam ntxhab hauv Suav teb tau cuam tshuam los ntawm cov teeb meem hluav taws xob hauv Tebchaws Europe, thiab kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev txo qis tau nce ntxiv, thaum cov khoom siv txhuas hauv tsev kuj tau cuam tshuam los ntawm kev txiav hluav taws xob hauv zos.Qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev txiav ntau lawm tau nce.Tsis tas li ntawd, cov hlau tsis muaj hlau txuas ntxiv cuam tshuam los ntawm cov khoom muag qis thiab cov khoom siv tsis tshua muaj elasticity.Thaum lub ntiaj teb no liquidity tseem muaj ntau, mov-sab cuam tshuam yog ib qho yooj yim los nyiam kev lag luam. "Tus tsim ib nrab lub sijhawm yav tom ntej tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Yang Lina tau hais.
Txawm li cas los xij, Yang Lina tau ceeb toom tias kev ua lag luam yuav tsum tau ua tib zoo saib xyuas tias lub rooj sib tham txhua xyoo ntawm cov tuam txhab nyiaj hauv ntiaj teb hauv Jackson Hole, hu ua "barometer" ntawm txoj cai hloov cov ntsiab lus, yuav muaj nyob rau lub Yim Hli 25 txog 27, thiab Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Powell yuav yog. muaj nyob rau hnub Friday 22 lub sijhawm Beijing.taw tes los hais txog kev lag luam kev lag luam.Lub sijhawm ntawd, Powell yuav piav qhia txog kev ua tau zoo ntawm kev nce nqi thiab kev ntsuas nyiaj txiag.Nws yuav tsum tau hais tias US kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam kev lag luam tseem muaj zog, thiab kev nce nqi tsis txaus siab, thiab txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag tseem yuav tsum tau nruj kom teb, thiab kev nce qib ntawm cov paj laum yuav txuas ntxiv mus.Kho rau cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag.Cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm ntawm lub rooj sib tham tseem yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dua rau kev ua lag luam.Nws tau hais tias tam sim no kev lag luam kev lag luam sib txawv ntawm kev ua kom nrawm nrawm, stagflation, thiab kev cia siab nyiaj txiag poob qis.Saib rov qab, nws tuaj yeem pom tias qhov kev ua tau zoo ntawm kev ua lag luam uas tsis yog-ferrous hlau tseem yog me ntsis zoo dua li lwm yam khoom muaj nqis hauv ib puag ncig zoo sib xws.
Saib ntawm cov chaw muag khoom aluminium profile, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntseeg tias qhov kev nce siab tsis ntev los no hauv cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws-sab cuam tshuam tau coj kev txhawb nqa luv luv.Yang Lina tau hais tias tam sim no, cov khoom siv txhuas sab hauv tsev raug cuam tshuam los ntawm kev kub hnyiab hluav taws xob, thiab lub peev xwm ntau lawm tseem txo qis.Nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws Europe, aluminium ntau lawm muaj peev xwm kuj raug txiav dua vim muaj teeb meem zog.Ntawm qhov kev thov sab, cov tuam txhab ua lag luam tseem cuam tshuam los ntawm kev txo hwj chim thiab kev ua haujlwm tau poob.Nrog rau kev txuas ntxiv ntawm lub caij nyoog ntawm kev noj thiab kev tsis zoo ntawm ib puag ncig sab nraud, qhov kev txiav txim ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam yog qhov tsis muaj zog, thiab kev rov qab los ntawm cov khoom siv davhlau ya nyob twg yuav siv sijhawm thiab kev ntsuas ntau dua.Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm cov khoom muag, social inventories tau sau ib qho me me ntawm cov nqi tsis zoo txhuas.
Tshwj xeeb, Hou Yahui tau hais rau cov neeg sau xov xwm tias ntxiv rau kev txo qis ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, cov neeg ua haujlwm ntawm Hydro's Sunndal aluminium tsob nroj hauv Norway tsis ntev los no tau pib tawm tsam, thiab cov nroj tsuag txhuas yuav tsum tsis pub ntau tshaj 20% hauv thawj plaub lub lis piam.Tam sim no, tag nrho cov peev txheej ntawm Sunndal Aluminium Cog yog 390,000 tons / xyoo, thiab kev tawm tsam muaj txog 80,000 tons / xyoo.
Hauv tsev, thaum Lub Yim Hli 22, lub zog txwv kev txwv ntawm Sichuan Xeev tau hloov kho dua tshiab, thiab tag nrho cov tuam txhab hluav taws xob electrolytic hauv lub xeev tau tso tseg kev tsim khoom.Raws li kev txheeb cais, muaj txog li 1 lab tons ntawm electrolytic aluminium muaj peev xwm ua haujlwm nyob rau hauv Sichuan Province, thiab qee lub tuam txhab tau pib txo qis thiab cia hluav taws xob rau cov neeg txij thaum nruab nrab Lub Xya Hli.Tom qab lub Yim Hli, qhov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tau dhau los ua hnyav dua, thiab tag nrho cov khoom siv hluav taws xob electrolytic aluminium hauv cheeb tsam tau raug kaw.Chongqing, uas tseem nyob rau sab qab teb sab hnub poob, kuj tseem nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej nruj ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob vim huab cua kub.Nws tau nkag siab tias ob lub tshuab hluav taws xob electrolytic aluminium tau cuam tshuam, suav nrog lub peev xwm ntau lawm txog 30,000 tons.Nws tau hais tias vim yog cov khoom siv tau hais los saum toj no, muaj qee qhov kev hloov pauv hauv cov qauv xoob ntawm cov txheej txheem aluminium.Thaum lub Yim Hli, qhov siab tshaj ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ntawm electrolytic aluminium tau raug ncua ib ntus, uas tsim ib qho kev txhawb nqa rau cov nqi hauv lub sijhawm luv.
"Lub sijhawm ntev npaum li cas qhov kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov nqi txhuas tuaj yeem nyob ntev feem ntau yog nyob ntawm lub sijhawm ntawm kev tawm tsam ntawm cov nroj tsuag aluminium txawv teb chaws thiab seb qhov ntsuas ntawm cov khoom txo qis vim muaj teeb meem ntawm lub zog yuav nthuav dav ntxiv."Yang Lina tau hais tias qhov ntev ntawm cov khoom lag luam txheeb ze rau kev thov txuas ntxiv nruj, qhov cuam tshuam rau cov nqi txhuas yuav yog.Qhov cuam tshuam ntau dua rau qhov sib npaug ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov.
Hou Yahui tau hais tias thaum kawg ntawm lub caij so so, huab cua kub tsis tu ncua nyob rau thaj tsam sab qab teb sab hnub poob yuav tsum maj mam los xaus, tab sis nws yuav siv sij hawm qee lub sij hawm rau cov teeb meem hluav taws xob kom txo tau, thiab cov txheej txheem tsim hluav taws xob electrolytic. txhuas txiav txim siab tias qhov rov pib dua ntawm lub xov tooj ntawm tes electrolytic kuj yuav siv sijhawm qee lub sijhawm.Nws kwv yees tias tom qab lub zog hluav taws xob ntawm electrolytic txhuas cov lag luam hauv Sichuan xeev tau lees paub, nws xav tias tag nrho cov peev txheej tsim khoom yuav rov pib dua tsawg kawg li ib hlis.
Wu Haode ntseeg hais tias kev ua lag luam txhuas yuav tsum tau them nyiaj rau cov hauv qab no: Raws li cov khoom siv thiab kev thov, kev txiav hluav taws xob hauv Sichuan ncaj qha ua rau txo qis ntawm 1 lab tons ntawm cov peev txheej ntau lawm thiab ncua ntawm 70,000 tons ntawm cov peev txheej tshiab. .Yog tias qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev kaw cia ntev li ib hlis, cov khoom siv txhuas tuaj yeem siab li 7.5%.tons.Ntawm qhov kev thov sab nraud, raws li cov cai tswjfwm zoo hauv tsev, kev txhawb nqa credit thiab lwm yam, muaj kev txhim kho me ntsis hauv kev xav tau, thiab nrog rau qhov tshwm sim ntawm "Golden Nine Silver Ten" lub caij ncov, yuav muaj qee qhov kev thov nce ntxiv. .Zuag qhia tag nrho, cov ntsiab lus ntawm txhuas cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau tuaj yeem ua tiav raws li: cov khoom lag luam poob qis, qhov kev xav tau nce ntxiv, thiab qhov sib npaug ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo txhim kho.
Hais txog cov khoom muag, tam sim no LME txhuas cov khoom lag luam tsawg dua 300,000 tons, cov khoom lag luam txhuas yav dhau los tsawg dua 200,000 tons, cov ntawv txais khoom hauv tsev yog tsawg dua 100,000 tons, thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hluav taws xob hauv tsev yog tsawg dua 700,000 tons."Lub khw yeej ib txwm hais tias 2022 yog lub xyoo uas electrolytic aluminium muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom, thiab qhov no yog qhov tseeb.Txawm li cas los xij, yog tias peb saib qhov txo qis ntawm cov peev txheej ntawm txhuas xyoo tom ntej thiab yav tom ntej, kev ua haujlwm ntawm electrolytic aluminium yog txuas mus rau 'qab nthab', thiab qhov kev thov tseem ruaj khov.Nyob rau hauv rooj plaub ntawm kev loj hlob, txawm hais tias muaj teeb meem ntawm cov khoom muag hauv txhuas, los yog seb lub khw yuav tau pib ua lag luam, qhov no xav tau kev saib xyuas. "Nws hais tias.
Nyob rau hauv dav dav, Wu Haode ntseeg hais tias tus nqi txhuas yuav zoo nyob rau hauv lub "golden cuaj nyiaj kaum", thiab lub sab sauv qhov siab pom 19,500-20,000 yuan / ton.Hais txog seb tus nqi txhuas puas yuav rov qab muaj zog los yog tsis ua haujlwm yav tom ntej, peb yuav tsum tau ua tib zoo saib xyuas qhov kev txhim kho ntawm kev noj thiab chav rau kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom.
Post lub sij hawm: Sep-02-2022